2030 Outlook

Binding 2030 climate and energy targets across Europe and the UK make delay impossible. Grid upgrades, building retrofits, and renewable capacity are now mandatory, not optional—driving sustained capital deployment and long-dated project pipelines.

Construction & Real Assets

By 2030, Europe and the UK are expected to deploy €700bn–€1T+ into housing, industrial space, and logistics to address long-standing supply gaps.

Housing

  • 1.5–2.0 million+ units of cumulative housing shortfall across major European markets

  • €350bn–€500bn required for residential construction and renovation by 2030

  • Target yields (debt): 5.5–7.5% for senior, 7–9% for value-add structure

Industrial & logistics:

  • 100–150 million sqm of new logistics and light industrial space needed to support reshoring and e-commerce growth

  • €200bn–€300bn of cumulative capex across EU and UK markets

  • Target yields (debt): 6.5–9%, often with long-dated leases and strong tenant credit

Public–private capital stack:

  • Government-backed programs absorbing early-stage risk

  • Private lenders are positioned senior in the capital structure

Investment implication: A deep, multi-year pipeline of construction and real-asset opportunities offering contracted or asset-backed cash flows, with yields competitive to U.S. real-asset credit but supported by stronger supply–demand dynamics.

Green Energy & Transition

Renewables

  • 2–3x increase in installed renewable capacity required by 2030

  • €400bn–€600bn of investment needed across wind, solar, and storage

Grids & energy infrastructure

  • €300bn+ required for grid reinforcement, interconnection, and flexibility

  • Regulated or quasi-regulated revenues supporting stable cash flows

Buildings & retrofits

  • 35–40% of EU emissions tied to buildings

  • €250bn+ annually needed for energy-efficiency upgrades through 2030

Private debt opportunity

  • Senior yields: 6–8% with contracted revenues

  • Transition / structured credit: 8–11%+, often policy- or subsidy-backed

Investment implication: Multi-year, policy-mandated demand creates a rare opportunity to lock in long-duration cash flows with infrastructure-like downside protection and attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Manufacturing & Reshoring

Europe is actively reshoring and upgrading critical manufacturing to improve supply-chain resilience and meet low-carbon standards. Through 2030, policy support and capital incentives are accelerating investment in modern, export-oriented production

  • €200bn–€300bn+ earmarked for industrial modernization, reshoring, and clean manufacturing across the EU and UK

  • Strategic sectors: semiconductors, advanced materials, batteries, EV supply chains, defense, and precision engineering

  • Export-oriented demand: EU manufacturers derive 50%+ of revenues from non-domestic markets in many sectors

  • Energy transition alignment: low-carbon and energy-efficient facilities benefit from subsidies, grants, and long-term offtake contracts

  • Private debt profile:

    • Senior secured yields: 6.5–8.5%

    • Structured / transition credit: 8–11%+, often asset-backed with policy support

Investment implication: Modernized, policy-aligned manufacturing assets are positioned for valuation uplift by 2030, offering private lenders stable cash flows today with improving credit quality over time.

Flagship EU & UK Programs for Foreign Investors

Construction & Real Assets

Large-scale public frameworks across Europe and the UK are mobilizing €700bn–€1T+ for climate-neutral construction, energy efficiency, and renewable infrastructure through 2030.

  • Public anchor capital de-risks early project phases and accelerates deployment

  • Energy-efficient buildings & retrofits supported by long-term subsidy and grant programs

  • Renewable and grid-linked infrastructure with regulated or contracted cash flows

  • Institutional-scale pipelines accessible through experienced developers and operators

  • Private debt profile:

    • Senior real-asset debt: 6–8% target yields

    • Structured / transition credit: 8–11%+, often policy- or contract-backed

Investment implication: Investors aligned with these frameworks can deploy capital alongside public flows, capturing stable, long-duration cash flows with infrastructure-like downside protection

UK Investment Zones & Incentives

The UK has designated 12 Investment Zones across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, targeting advanced manufacturing, clean energy, life sciences, and innovation

  • 12 Investment Zones launched, each supported by ~£80m–£160m of public funding over 5–10 years

  • £1bn+ total public capital committed to zone development, crowding in private investment

  • Tax incentives available within zones:

    • 100% full expensing on qualifying plant and machinery

    • Enhanced capital allowances for structures and buildings

    • Business rates relief for up to 10 years

    • Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) relief on commercial property transactions

  • Planning acceleration and local authority support to shorten development timelines

Logistics & Services

As supply chains reconfigure, demand for specialized logistics and scalable service platforms is accelerating across Europe and the UK. Operators that can scale cross-border are positioned to outperform purely domestic players.

  • €250bn–€350bn+ in logistics, warehousing, and supply-chain services investment expected through 2030

  • Nearshoring + reshoring driving demand for regional distribution hubs, cold storage, and value-added logistics

  • Cross-border advantage: pan-EU/UK operators access a 450m+ consumer market with harmonized trade and regulatory frameworks

  • Service-heavy revenue mix (maintenance, handling, compliance, last-mile) supports recurring, non-cyclical cash flows

  • Private debt profile:

    • Senior asset-backed yields: 6–8%

    • Platform / growth credit: 8–10%+, often supported by contracted volumes and long-term customer relationships

Investment implication: Scalable logistics and service platforms offer durable demand, recurring revenues, and cross-border growth optionality, supporting attractive risk-adjusted returns through 2030.

National & Regional Grant Schemes — By Country

UNITED KINGDOM

  • Capital grants: £1m–£10m (regional), £10m–£50m+ (strategic projects)

  • Soft loans & guarantees: £10m–£100m+, often via UKIB or devolved agencies

  • Focus areas: clean energy, advanced manufacturing, life sciences, regional regeneration

  • Investor takeaway: clear frameworks, faster execution, strong fit for real assets and platform build-outs

GERMANY

  • Capital grants: €5m–€30m typical, €50m–€100m+ for industrial-scale projects

  • Soft loans / guarantees: €25m–€200m+, frequently via KfW and state banks

  • Focus areas: manufacturing, energy transition, automation, export-oriented industry

  • Investor takeaway: large ticket sizes, strong downside protection, well-suited to senior and structured credit

FRANCE

  • Capital grants: €3m–€20m, scaling to €50m+ under national programs

  • Soft loans / quasi-equity: €20m–€150m+ via Bpifrance

  • Focus areas: industrial reshoring, clean tech, transport, digital infrastructure

  • Investor takeaway: attractive blended-capital structures; strong support for growth and transition assets

NORDICS (SWEDEN, NORWAY, FINLAND, DENMARK)

  • Capital grants: €2m–€15m typical, €20m–€50m+ for energy and infrastructure

  • Guarantees & concessional loans: €10m–€100m+, often climate-focused

  • Focus areas: renewables, grids, green hydrogen, industrial decarbonization

  • Investor takeaway: high policy credibility, smaller but very bankable projects; ideal for long-dated infra credit

MGRK advantage: We identify which jurisdictions and programs are realistically accessible, structure projects to qualify, and align public funding with private capital to materially improve risk-adjusted returns.

What This Means for Investors

  • Private debt: grants and guarantees improve DSCR, LTV, and recovery values

  • Equity: non-dilutive capital boosts IRRs and valuation resilience

  • Execution risk: varies materially by country and region